BlueSky Thinking Summary

In their study, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin discover that autocracies are more formally self-destructive.

They use game theory to describe why dictators such as Vladimir Putin seem to choose obviously harmful decisions, such as sending troops into Ukraine.

The paper argues that as they specialize in the self-preserving strategies of oppressing opponents and depending on incompetent but loyal advisers, autocrats do so at precisely the expense of accelerating the decline of their regime.

This vicious circle of repression fuels paranoia and drives the ineffective decision-making deeper into the system than ever before unto internal destabilization and even collapse.

The research studies successful autocratic successions in China wherein the outgoing leadership manipulation of formal institutDecaytional structures reduced uncertainty and the critical role of a strong and active successor elite contrast to Russia's failure–failed successions of Putin.

Egorov's investigation makes a clear and important point: the risks of autocracy mainly hinge on leadership dynamics and the critical role they might play in sustaining regime resilience and stability.

Understanding why autocratic regimes fail becomes one of the major steps in gaining insight into what degree of political stability is expected in the world and relatedly how government will fare in the future.