Forecasting, Planning and Strategy in a Turbulent Era

• Title: Forecasting, Planning and Strategy in a Turbulent Era
• Edited by: Dr Vasileios Bougioukos, Associate Professor in Economics and Finance, Richmond, American University London and Adjunct Associate Professor in Economics and Finance, Notre Dame London, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Professor in Business Information Systems & Analytics, Department of Management and Marketing, Durham University Business School, and Christos Tsinopoulos, Professor, Chair in Operations and Project Management, Executive Dean of School Business and Management, Department of Information and Operations Management, Royal Holloway University of London
• Published by: Edward Elgar Publishing, May 2025
• Where to find it: https://www.elgaronline.com/configurable/content/book$002f9781035317240$002f9781035317240.xml?t:ac=book%24002f9781035317240%24002f9781035317240.xml

December 2025 brings with it the close of another unpredictable year, set against the backdrop of what is becoming characterised as a turbulent decade thus far.

Between pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, global supply chain and trade meltdowns and the rapid adoption of ever-more capable AI tools, we’ve lived through a lot in the 2020s, and we’re only at the half-way point. Who’s to say what the next five years will bring?

It might be near impossible to predict, but what we know for sure is that, for business leaders, the old playbooks for forward planning just don’t cut it anymore. We need a new game-plan. Thankfully, that’s exactly what Forecasting, Planning and Strategy in a Turbulent Era, the latest release from Dr Vasileios Bougioukos, Professor Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, and Professor Christos Tsinopoulos, tackles head-on.

Their book, published in May this year, digs into how organisations respond, analyse their performance and maintain strategic focus during extreme events and times of crises beyond their control.

It is, according to book editor Vasileios Bougioukos, a topic which has never been more important. Most of the forecasting and strategic planning tools we currently use in industry were built for a world that was relatively predictable – steady growth, occasionally redirected by a few small bumps in the road, but nothing on the scale of which the world has witnessed in recent years. Not only are today’s businesses more globally spread and interconnected than ever before, they’re also dodging bigger curveballs at a faster pace. The decisions business leaders make have bigger consequences and the goalposts for stability – let alone success – are constantly shifting.

Taking inspiration from how organisations have navigated real-world disruptions; the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19, and the digital transformation arms race, the authors seek to understand exactly how companies can best respond when the world turns upside down. Their explorations offer a frank insight into what to do and, most importantly, what practices should be abandoned to the past.

The book is a must-read for anyone trying to lead an organisation, plan for the future, or just make sense of how to stay resilient when the ground keeps shifting,

We sat down with Vasileios Bougioukos, to find out more…

Can you tell us about the inspiration behind your new business book? What motivated you to write it?

In the last five years the world has experienced various unforeseen special events. Economic agents and policymakers have had to overcome multiple impediments and struggled to make effective decisions under these global disruptions. COVID-19, new zones of conflict, and economic developments revealed the limitations of traditional strategic forecasting frameworks. The editors wanted to bring together various scholars and practitioners to address how forecasting could reposition itself in a turbulent environment.

The motive was to write a book that blends theory and real-world examples, offering behavioural insights on how to remain resilient and forward-looking in uncertain times.

What are the key takeaways or main ideas that readers can expect to find in your book?

This book proposes forward thinking in time of uncertainty. A well-prepared mindset can survive turbulence via informed decisions and flexibility in strategic planning. These takeaways can be considered;

• Forecasting as foresight: On being proactive on disruptions
• Strategic adaptability: From rigid planning to scenario-case thinking
• Interdisciplinary understanding: Insights from a holistic perspective of management, economics, behavioural science and politics
• Real-world cases: applying frameworks selected across Europe and Asia

Who is the target audience for your book, and how do you believe it will benefit them?

The book targets a diverse range of readers, including business practitioners, policymakers, academics, and postgraduate students in economics, forecasting, and management.

Practitioners can draw practical advice and generate tools to foster resilience in decision-making during turbulent times. For this audience, it offers practical advice and tools to overcome uncertainty and foster resilience during turbulent times.

What do you think makes this topic particularly relevant or timely in today’s business world, or for the years ahead?

The examples are current, as is the spirit of the book, which covers the uncertain rhetoric that still prevails in policy making. This makes the book an excellent read for today’s volatile world.

As cited Ali Emrouznejad, a Professor and Chair in Business Analytics at Surrey Business School:

“This timely volume expertly navigates the complexities of modern forecasting, planning, and strategy in uncertain times. Through insightful analysis and diverse case studies, the authors provide essential tools and frameworks to help organisations adapt and thrive amid global disruptions. A must-read for decision-makers facing the challenges of today’s unpredictable environment.”

Can you discuss any specific case studies or real-world examples from your book that illustrate its principles in action?

The book presents a wide range of international case studies. For example one chapter analyses how Thai agricultural supply chains were affected by the conflict in Ukraine, while another evaluates government response policies to the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai.

Moreover, chapters are dealing with digitalisation during times of high uncertainty but also due to the nature of the problem of extreme necessity.

There’s also a fascinating study on forecasting tourism recovery and a model for predicting short-term rental market dynamics like Airbnb. Together, these examples show how forecasting and strategy can be combined to create adaptive, data-driven responses to real-world crises.

How does your book add to/expand existing discussions on this topic?

The book implicitly asks the readers to implement an adaptive forecasting mindset with a data-driven approach. It addresses the pivotal role of scenario planning, preparing for multiple possible futures rather than relying on a single forecast.

Can you provide some practical tips or strategies from your book that readers can immediately apply to improve their business or career?

The book encourages readers to adopt an adaptive forecasting mindset – to update plans as new data and conditions emerge continuously. It also stresses the importance of scenario planning, preparing for multiple possible futures rather than relying on a single forecast.

For individuals’ careers, we need the same adaptability and continuous learning.

Finally, what book written by another author would you consider essential reading for your audience and why?

I would recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan. It brilliantly captures how rare and unpredictable events shape our world – a concept that deeply resonates with the themes of our book.

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